From a friend in Ira who emailed me to express his opinion about the recount of the ballots in Iran:
I think Khamenei and his establishment are taken aback by the strength and scale of people’s reaction to the election result. It is pretty amazing that after declaring Ahamdinejad victory a victory for the nation and essentially ordering the other candidates to join in backing him, he has now done a U turn in ordering a recount and/or investigation.
His priority is above all else the survival of the Islamic Republic regime, even if it means losing face and even if it means sidelining Ahmadinejad, although I doubt it’ll come to that. The recount and the investigation could simply a be formality.
This may be a bigger story of Rafsanjani trying to oust Khamenei. He wants to remove the Supreme Leader post in the Islamic Republic and replace it with a Leadership Council. A change in the Constitution.
It also has personal dimensions. Think of every high ranking clergy as the “boss” of a family in the Godfather with bits of their own “interest”.
Goes back to the family feud. Don Corleone died and now the rest are jostling for position.
Strange as it may sound the only cleric candidate Karrubi is the mostreformist of the lot. He’s much more outspoken, his plans for reforms more radical, including women’s rights…
One is for sure: all the above people will argue, fight, defame each other, but ultimately behind closed doors will do what’s need to make sure the Islamic Republic survives. “The Firm” must live.
I started twittering what a friend — who needs to stay anonymous — is relaying to me from Iran. But to keep it coherent and in the spirit of what this friend is trying to say, here is what he is syaing in its entirety.
Provoking violence and confrontation is not the answer. Iran does not need another revolution. But lawful and peaceful evolution.
There lies the path to a blood bath and possible civil war. Do not underestimate the power of social, cultural and political divisions created by 30 years of post revolutionary oppressive rule.
Tell Tehran Bureau saying burning and throwing stones is our only voice is utterly irresponsible.
This election crisis is really a power struggle at top of the Islamic Republic hierarchy, heirs to Khomeini. More like a family feud over ideological and material inheritance.
After 30 years the revolution has reached a troubled “adolescence”, now convulsing in new unpredictable directions. Its chief architects have fallen out. Backed by peaceful people power they will be forced to fight it out among themselves, as they are right now.
Grand Ayatollah’s in Iran’s ‘Vatican’ are taking different positions protecting their respective camps. Theirs is the real power, for now. There’s much behind the scenes activity going on.
Let them fight it out, rather than get people beaten on the streets. Let “political’ blood be spilled rather than the real thing.
This friend is a very wise and informed person whose words needs to be heard. I will update as needed.
